Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
