Conflict-ravaged Burma Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned 'Sham' Election.

Election materials in Myanmar
Myanmar's military is holding a phased election over the coming weeks.

The nation is holding an election in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with major political parties dissolved, many of their leaders jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The military government is conducting a staggered election nearly five years after it took control in a coup, which sparked massive protests and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the junta, with backing from Beijing, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the costly stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the rights of free speech, assembly or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for interfering with or opposing the polls under a new law which carries harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a film endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, pointing out that armed rebel groups have made warnings asking people to boycott the polls.

The army has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It lost control of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year after relentless airstrikes enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it challenging to forecast a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while others are in exile.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into phases, the authorities can change their approach if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has called for political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not intended for the international community," a junta spokesman stated at a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "progress toward democracy".

Brenda Gomez
Brenda Gomez

Professional blackjack strategist and casino game analyst with over a decade of experience in high-stakes gaming.