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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It often functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence wins the award. However, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or just the greatest shock.

But the latest competition is fundamentally unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and recent also-rans improving together. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a given following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still